24 April 2010

Seeing Red: Deconstructing Why The Red Sox Are Off To A Slow Start

photo courtesy of Jim Rogash/Getty Images

The system
Why did they change their system to one more oriented towards pitching and defense? Why fix what wasn’t broken? So far, their changes aren’t working out, as the Sox are already in the hole with a 7-10 record. Last year, they ended up with a 95-67 record, and this year, they’re on pace to reverse that with a 67-95 record. According to last year’s final standings, that record would tie Boston for second to last in the American League. The Red Sox have to pray that their system starts to work or abandon ship if they hope to see the postseason.

Defense
This season, the BoSox are ignoring one of the most important defensive positions—catching. While busy signing defensive walls like third baseman Adrian Beltre, shortstop Marco Scutaro, and center fielder Mike Cameron (who have five Gold Gloves between them), GM Theo Epstein failed to anticipate the abilities of his catchers. As of Friday, Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek were a combined 1-36 in throwing out base stealers. And in terms of the rest of the team, Boston has already recorded 12 errors in 17 games, and at that rate, is looking to commit 114 errors, compared to last year’s 82. They really need to tighten up as a team to give their pitchers—and themselves—a chance at winning.

Offense
Renowned slugger, David Ortiz, is off to another slow start this season. In 12 games, Big Papi is 7 for 44, making his batting average a meager .159. Manager Terry Francona doesn't have the time to wait for his bat to wake up and opted to replace him with Mike Lowell for the last two games against the Texas Rangers.  Due to Lowell’s subpar showing (in which he went 2-8), the Sox gave Big Papi another chance Friday night. While Ortiz showed a bit more heat, going 1-3 with a solo home run, this flash of brilliance wasn't enough to secure his place in the lineup and tonight, Martinez's name was written in the DH spot.  He went 1-3, with a walk and a run scored. As we all know, the job of a designated hitter is, simply, to hit. And Boston needs to find one man who can do that consistently, because he’s currently nowhere to be found.

Pitching
While the Sox set themselves up to have an unstoppable rotation—and on paper, it certainly looked that way—their pitchers have been anything but. Jon Lester has little to show in his first four starts this season: an 0-2 record, a 6.23 ERA, and 13 walks. ‘Ace’ Josh Beckett isn’t fairing much better after four starts with his 5.26 ERA, one win, and 10 walks. Veteran Tim Wakefield is winless in his three starts, posting a 6.38 ERA and seven walks. John Lackey has similar stats, with one win in three starts and a 5.63 ERA with seven walks. Clay Buchholz is the only starter to have an ERA under 5, showing a 2.70 with one win in three starts, and seven walks. And the reason these walks are important? Last year, these five pitchers gave away 252 free rides all season. This season, they’re on track to put up 333.3. With as little offense as the Sox are producing, they can’t afford to give up this many runs. And with the number of runs these guys are giving up each game, they can’t afford this many walks. (Don’t forget that four of these guys are locked up until 2014.)

Everything else
One of the most important stats—the comparison of earned runs vs. runs scored, is looking absolutely dismal. Last year, Boston scored 872 runs and held their opponents to 695 earned runs. However, this year, the Red Sox are on track to score a skimpy 658 runs and allow their opponents 753 earned runs. Even the mathematically-challenged can see that if they keep this pace up, they’re destined for a very long, very disappointing season.

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